EVOLUTION OF MONETARY POLICY IN INDIA
Monetary policy in India has evolved in keeping with the changing socio-economic and political environment. Monetary policy being an arm of public policy has not remain divorced from the vicissitude of changes that the country has experienced in terms of changes in approaches to policy making. These changes can be broadly categorised into three time periods: post independence period upto 1969, the 1980's and the post 1991 reforms periods.
Post independence upto 1969
Post independent India was primarily under state control. Gaining independence, India adopted a state dominated development strategy whereby the state determined the allocation of resources and their utilisation. The role of the financial system was limited in this state dominated economy. Capital accumulation remained the primary objective of economic activities; this was to be achieved by increasing national savings by levying high taxes, suppressing consumption and appropriating profits through direct state ownership of enterprises. Public sector enterprises continued to remain the sole economic driver of the economy. In such a context, the role of banks was to act as financial repositories of national savings and to fulfil the national objective of financing of industrial and trade activities. The financial system had a limited role of enhancing capital accumulation for national economic development (to be fostered by state owned public enterprises). There was little scope for role flexibility since interest rates, the primary tool of monetary systems, were not only controlled and regulated but also repressed (to fund public companies). Moreover, the government pre-empted household savings through high levels of statutory and cash reserve requirements. Private sector participation was restricted rendering the entire mechanism of 'price discovery' lopsided. All resource allocation decisions were made by the government which reserved for itself all financial resources to fund its public expenditure and investment activities. This only diluted the allocative efficiency of financial systems. Banks and financial institutions channelised credit to select priority sectors at subsidised rates decided by the government. The result was banks charging higher rates from other borrowers and offering lower rates to depositors. These interest rate controls and regulations distorted the price discovery mechanism and rendered the proper pricing of resources inefficient.
In a closed and highly regulated financial system, monetary policy in India found itself in a subservient position to public/fiscal policy. It was the time of 'automatic monetisation'- in a closed economy where prices of a significant number of commodities were administered, sustaining these prices at a steady level called for subsiding of commodities amounting a ballooning budget deficit. These deficits were financed through ad hoc treasury bills or through borrowings, mostly from nationalised banks. The first led to more or less automatic monetisation, the primary factor behind expansion in money supply. To control this money supply, the RBI had to resort to mechanisms like increasing the cash reserve ratio and the statutory reserve ratio from time to time. Monetary policy thus depended primary in two instruments- CRR and SLR. Markets remained weak due to state predominance; an administered interest rate regime acted as an impediment to the functioning of other instruments like Open Market Operations.
1951-1970 was thus a period of restricted monetary policy functioning. Monetary policy remained dependent on fiscal policy with no independent functioning of either its mechanisms or its instruments. The period was a time of heavy reliance on the public sector which was expected to bolster economic development through bringing about fruitful industrialisation. The Mahalnobis Plan introduced by the government focused on large scale public investment in industries to bolster the productive capacity of the economy. Huge public investment entailed deficit financing, which resulted in monetary policy bias against interested borrowers who had to pay higher interests in order to offset the debilitating inflationary effects of a public sector directed expansionary monetary policy.
The 1980s
The year 1985 saw India's formal change to "monetary targeting with feedback". The recommendation for the change was made by the Chakravarty Committee, a committee set up to recommend changes to improve monetary regulation and thereby bring about price stability in the economy. The late 1970s and 1980s were years of high inflationary pressures on the economy. This was primary due to the expanding and intensifying government borrowing program which resulted in: 1) increased credit flow from the RBI to the government to fund the latter's economic investment program, and 2) an increase in the SLR requirements of banks to meet the government's borrowing programs.
Increasing prices and an unstable economy resulted in the constitution of the Chakravarty Committee which suggested the adoption of a 'monetary targeting' program. Monetary targeting refers to fixing ex ante the most favourable target rate of growth of money supply in the economy as the foundation of the policy of monetary regulation. This was an important recommendation since price stability is influenced significantly by the growth of money supply in the economy.
The Committee stated that an average increase of not more than 4% per year of the Wholesale Price Index should be treated as acceptable. However, this target was not rigidly set, unlike was the practice in other countries. The Committee recommended an uncommon strategy- monetary policy targeting "with feedback". It recommended that the targeted money growth should be 'modified' based on expected increase in output and a tolerable rate of inflation.
=>The Committee envisaged formulation of monetary policy in terms of broad money stock (M3) as the target. This target was to be attained be keeping into account three factors: a) growth of expected real output b) expected income elasticity of demand for money c) tolerable level of inflation.
As per the above Framework, for example, if the expected real output growth is 5%, income elasticity of demand for money is 1% and tolerable level of inflation is 4%, then the targeted growth of broad money supply (M3) would be 11%. Depending upon the changes in the above variables, monetary targets can be revised during the year.
A crucial assumption of this framework of monetary policy was the stable relationship between money, output and prices- the money demand function. It was assumed that by changing money supply, it was possible to bring about effective changes in output and prices.
Despite the move towards monetary targeting, no specific target in India was set during the second half of the 1980s. The "Monetary Targeting with Feedback" approach had to be reviewed as the nature of the economy transformed further. The 1990s saw the advent of the age of economic reforms accompanied by the liberalisation of financial markets and opening up of the economy to the world economy.
The 1990s Reform Era
The 1990s was a period of changing economic circumstances. As the economy opened up (though only in a piecemeal fashion), the important role of interest rates in determining monetary policy became self evident. Thus, besides real income and output, interest rates came to be increasingly seen as influencing money supply. Hence, from 1998-99,the RBI endeavoured to follow the 'Multiple Indicator Approach' (MIA) in which a number of macroeconomic and financial variables are considered while deciding upon the course of monetary policy (rather than a single M3 aggregate as in the past). These variable include- interest rates, rate of return in different markets, bank credit, fiscal position, foreign trade, capital flows, exchange rate, etc. The approach provided necessary flexibility to RBI to respond to changes in domestic and international economic conditions more effectively and efficiently.
This was an important period in the shaping of the monetary policy of our country. It affirmed severed the Reserve Bank's historic subserviency to public policy (as seen in the withdrawal of the mechanism of automatic monetisation of fiscal deficit in 1997). The Ways and Means Advances mechanism was a major step in the affirmation of the integrity of monetary policy framing. The mechanism with a fixed limit for every year provided for meeting the temporary mismatches in the liquidity situation of the government. To a great extent, this measure helped (and has helped) to control the adverse effects of fiscal deficit on monetary policy functioning.
The Reform period ushered in an era of a liberalised interest rate regime which further loosened the hitherto administrative grip on monetary policy. Interest rates were deregulated, so were prices (except certain essential commodities). SLRand CRR began to lose importance as the primary monetary policy instruments, and Open Market Operations gained prominence. The LAF, Liquidity Adjustment Facility was operationalised in 2000. Monetary policy now had repo and reverse repo rates as its primary policy instruments. As the economy ventured to become more market oriented, new schemes were introduced. The Market Stabilisation Scheme was thus launched in 2004 to strengthen RBI's ability to influence exchange rate and monetary management. The new scheme enabled the central bank to manage liquidity in the economy- MSS securities were issued with the objective of providing the RBI with a stock of securities with which it could intervene in the market to manage liquidity. These securities were not issued to meet the government's expenditure.
Monetary policy thus came to assume a relatively independent functioning, as it moved towards catering to newer concerns pertaining to a liberalised market oriented economy.
In the given context of complex economic changes, monetary policy thus worked in tandem. From a state subservient mechanism, monetary policy evolved into a facilitator playing its part in both the growth and stabilisation of the Indian economy. The Multiple Indicator Approach was not the end point in a series of significant changes. With its focus on multiple variables, the approach did not pre empt the primary role of monetary policy in our country, that of "price stability". However, that our monetary policy framework did not obsess itself with the single variable of price stability was reflected in it focusing on a myriad of policy objectives, viz. interest rates, exchange rates, etc, within the overarching objective of the growth and stability of the economy.
It was only in the beginning of this year that the RBI entered into an official agreement with the government whereby it has adopted "Flexible Inflation Targeting" as its sole monetary goal. The move is significant (and will be discussed in another post) since it narrows down the central bank's role to that of solely maintaining price stability. While the move is strategically a departure from the hitherto followed "Multiple Indicator Approach", it is not a significant policy departure. Price stability has been the concern of RBI since the time of its constitution. The difference now is in the focus of approach: from a more general objective of maintaining stability in the economy, the RBI is now to pursue a more specialised and clearly demarcated objective of targeting the primary disrupter of an economy's stability- INFLATION.